Syria Briefing: Five years into the conflict

As the fifth anniversary of the Syrian Uprising dawned, Syria and Syrians appeared more divided, uncertain and exhausted than ever before.

For the first time in five years a fragile ceasefire appears to be holding, despite daily breaches by the different warring parties, mainly by the regime and the Russian air force. However, many Syrians seem uncertain, even confused, about the next steps.

It seems clear that the immediate goal of the Russian deployment was to degrade and demoralise moderate opposition forces, as they, not Daesh (Islamic State, IS), constitute a real and indigenous challenge to President Assad’s legitimacy. Russia has attempted to convince the West that the choice is between Assad and Daesh; and recent Russian comments about federalism may point to plans to create an Alawite enclave as a last resort if, in the course of the conflict, Assad is forced out of Damascus.

This situation, coupled with a defiant and rather incoherent response from the West, reinforces the uncertainty of many Syrians – whether they are pro-or anti-Assad. Despair is felt both by those who once believed the Uprising would oust Assad and open the door to democratic reforms, and by those who believed Assad’s assertions that the opposition was made up of terrorists and Western agents who would easily be crushed.

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