al Shabaab attacks October 2019-March 2020

In early January the al Shabaab terrorist group perpetrated a sophisticated attack on a US military base near the coastal port of Lamu. The attack led to the deaths of three US nationals, the highest US casualty rate in Africa since 2017. The incident highlighted the weaknesses the defences of the military base perimeter and led to the destruction of valuable surveillance aircraft. There was also an attempt to enter a British Army base in Laikipia County in central Kenya. However, it is unlikely that the effort was connected to the attack on the US base.

The incidents in January indicate a shift by the terrorist group from solely targeting Kenyan security services, to the targeting of allies such as the USA, which provide significant counter-terrorism support to the governments of Kenya and Somalia. While al Shabaab continues to look for high profile targets, the majority of it’s attacks have focused equally on Kenyan security personnel and civilians. Attacks on teachers in the Northern province are a continuation of a pattern noted in late 2018 and 2019, and the persistent attacks on non-Muslim and non-local teachers constitute a deliberate strategy that has been replicated in attacks on commercial passenger vehicles. Ethnicity and religion remain a focus for the group’s attacks in Kenya’s Lamu, Garissa, Mandera and Wajir counties, all of which border Somalia.

Kenya is also addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time of writing, there are 374 confirmed cases and 14 deaths. The government has implemented stringent measures to restrict the spread of the respiratory illness. Additionally, like nations around the world, the government is also responding to the economic crisis. There is some concern that the pandemic will plunge already vulnerable communities into poverty. Particularly for vulnerable youth in communities where al Shabaab has succeeded in their recruitment, there is concern that the group will switch their strategy to take advantage of current developments. However, some analysts suggest that the group’s operations are not primed for a serious recruitment campaign.

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