Myanmar/Burma’s coup shatters hopes for democracy, religious tolerance and human rights
Images of tanks and soldiers on the streets, and the sound of gunfire against peaceful protesters reverse a decade of fragile reforms. From her release from house arrest in 2010, through to her election victory and the past five years as de facto head of government, Aung San Suu Kyi is now back where she started: in detention.
Benedict Rogers, Senior Analyst for East Asia, explains the situation in Myanmar/Burma.
The coup on 1 February stunned the world. Although it had been rumoured, few expected the military to do it. It is true that the army has a history of staging coups and it isn’t keen on losing elections, as it showed in 1990 when it refused to accept Suu Kyi’s first victory, consigning her to 15 years under house arrest. In 2008 it drafted a new constitution designed to keep Suu Kyi out of power, and rammed it through in a sham referendum. Nevertheless, since then it had appeared that the military had come to some kind of accommodation with Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD).
In 2015, the NLD won an overwhelming majority in the election. Suu Kyi became ‘State Counsellor’, although the military – under the constitution – held control of three key ministries, and controlled a quarter of the seats in parliament.
In 2020, the NLD won an even bigger victory at the polls, but that did not really threaten the military’s authority. Indeed, the military had the best of all worlds – real power without any accountability, leaving it to Suu Kyi and her party to defend their actions to the international community. Suu Kyi had already sacrificed her reputation by defending the military’s genocidal campaign against the Rohingyas – a predominantly Muslim ethnic group - at the International Court of Justice.
So why throw all this away in a coup? The only rational explanation is that this was about the vain ambitions of one man, the Commander-in-Chief General Min Aung Hlaing. Knowing he is due to retire this year, it seems he decided to take matters into his own hands.
What does this mean for human rights and freedom of religion or belief in Burma?
The past decade of reform saw some initial opening up, but in recent years the rise of ultra-Buddhist religious nationalism led to anti-Muslim violence, and the genocide of the Rohingyas. Christians also continued to face restrictions, discrimination and occasional violence.
Any hopes that democracy would lead to religious tolerance and freedom seemed far off. But the military coup sets things back much further.
The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom said: ‘Given the history of brutal atrocities by the Burmese military, our fear is that violence could quickly escalate, especially towards religious and ethnic communities, such as the Rohingya and other Muslims.’
‘We are not safe any more’
The impact of the coup is already being felt in Burma’s ethnic states. David Eubank, founder of the Free Burma Rangers, wrote on 7 February: ‘Here in Karen State, the Karen people feel like the coup only reveals overtly what they and every ethnic already knew; that the army is totally in charge...Their own lives haven’t changed: they were attacked before the coup and they are being attacked now after the coup. Holding their babies in hiding places under the trees, they told me, “We don’t need you to give us food and medicine and shelter; just stop the Burma Army from attacking our villages...If you stop them, we can take care of ourselves.”’
After over 20 years of advocacy for Burma, the events of this year have been heartbreaking for me personally. One good friend told me: ‘We are not safe any more. We are being followed.’
What can be done?
One thing is clear: statements alone don’t cut it. We need robust, targeted pressure. That means sanctions against the military. We must avoid broad-based sanctions that hurt the people of Burma, but we cannot let a coup occur with impunity. We need a global arms embargo. We need cross-border humanitarian aid to the ethnic states, because aid delivered in-country can’t reach many of the most vulnerable.
Min Aung Hlaing and his henchmen must be made to pay a very high price. If their position becomes uncomfortable enough, it just might make them back down, but if they believe they can get away with it, they will simply carry on.
Burma’s Cardinal Charles Bo called for peace and dialogue, and for the release of everyone who has been arrested. ‘They are not prisoners of war; they are prisoners of a democratic process,’ he wrote in a statement. That must be our prayer for Burma today. Release the captives, respect the will of the people and help the country on to a path towards genuine democracy and real peace.
How you can help
The situation in Myanmar/Burma is changing rapidly – please keep checking csw.org.uk/burma and our Twitter feed @csw_uk for the latest updates, and to find out how you can help.